Another Day That Ends In “Y”

In 2018, SpaceX could fully master reusable rockets that require no refurbishment for relaunch after landing. SpaceX is already the low cost launch leader. Fully reusable (all stages) generation one capability will already reduce SpaceX costs in half even while maintaining margins.

No future launch capability is a threat to SpaceX dominance of commercial space launch. Blue Origin is working on reusability but they are still suborbital. Blue Origin is targeting about 2020 for having an low earth orbit capable reusable rocket. They would still have to scale up production even after proving this capability. SpaceX will have absorbed and consolidated a dominant market share.

ULA, Arianespace, China and Russia all have nothing remotely close to achieving the low cost and launch capabilities that SpaceX will have.

(I’ve corrected all the places in the quote which didn’t correctly spell “SpaceX”)

You notice who’s not on the list? Yep, our tax-feeding, risk averse, hopefully soon to be disbanded “friends” at NA$A. I’m waiting for the day, and trust me it will arrive, when NA$A will be forced to turn to SpaceX to launch a payload because they will have neither the capability not the hardware to get the job done themselves. As I’ve asked before in other contexts, just what are we paying for here?

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